The World of "Good-Bye Lenin"

(Unedited translation)

By Miguel Murado

Miguel Murado

“You’ll be badly, but not for long”. Incredible as it sounds, this was Alexander Lukashenko’s electoral slogan when he became the President of Belarus for the first time. Now, himself is doing badly too, once again exposed to UE sanctions after a dubious voter turn-out and with the political opposition taking to the streets to try and precipitate the country into another “Orange revolution” like Ukraine’s. He’s doing badly, but it won’t be for long. Belarus is not Ukraine and everything indicates that, for the time being, orange won’t be the fashionable colour in Minsk.

The truth is that, in spite of the enthusiasm arisen in Washington and Brussels by the electoral protests these days, the number of demonstrators in the former Soviet republic has never surpassed a few thousands and diminishes on daily basis. Maybe Lukashenko pushed it a little bit when he claimed a 82% for himself in last Sunday’s poll, but the truth is that he’s still extraordinary popular. Most likely more than 50% of those votes are legitimate (it should be kept in mind that already in 1994 he gathered a 80%, then out of question, and thereafter another 84% in his referendum for reform two years later).

What is, then, the reason for the popularity of a politician who admits being “authoritarian by nature” and has consistently manipulated the laws and the media of his country? To quote his own words, that the Belarusians, with him, had done badly, but not for long. Even the World Bank, while criticizing Lukashenko’s resistance to privatization, describes Belarus’ economic growth as “genuine and robust”. With the unemployment bellow 2% and higher wages than in the neighbouring countries, Belarusians feel they have spared themselves the crisis which periodically shake Russia or Ukraine. As in the German film Good-Bye Lenin, Lukashenko has been able to freeze Belarus in the Soviet World of the eighties, and it works, at least in terms of budget. There’s no freedom, but there’s wealth as long as the Russian alliance guaranties a market (60% of Belarus exports) and cheap energy. Therefore, for the time being, this Belarusian “colour revolution” lacks something crucial, the real secret leader of all revolutions: Discontent.

(Miguel Murado is a former Middle East correspondent and current political analyst for the Spanish newspaper La Voz de Galicia)

Miguel Murado
La Voz de Galicia, 27 March 2006