(unedited translation)

Miguel Murado

Prophecies and the horoscopes, of which Iranians are so fond of, forecasted for this 23rd of March nothing less than a nuclear war. But the date has passed and not only the World has not come to an abrut End but there, in Iran, the year has just begun. These are the final days of Nauroz, the Persian New Year, a festivity that is actually Zoroastrian in origin andduring which it is traditional to get rid of seven objects with names containing the letter “S”.

Regardless how the word “uranium” is spelled in Pharsi, this doesn’t seem to have been one of those objects disposed by the Iranians. No surprise in yesterday’s IEAE revelation that Iran has not stopped its uranium-enriching process. The Iranian government itself announced it on TV a few days ago. On the other hand, what is being described by many as a UN “demand” (to interrupt that process) was nothing more than a “request”. That will be the next step Washington and his allies in this issue (UK and France) will take in the Paris meeting on Tuesday: turning requests into demands. But even that remains to be seen. Germany will also be there and, for all the talk of an EU-3 lobby, the Germans seem less than enthusiastic about santions on Iran, if only because their economic links with Teheran make them more vulnerable to those sanctions than Teheran herself is.

Anyhow, the key to what might happen in the near future lies elsewere, in Moscow. Russia not only has strong economic interests in Iran, but is actually building a nuclear power plant there. Leaving aside that Russia can veto any condemnation of Iran at the Security Council, the mere presence of her technicians on the ground makes it nigh on impossible an American surprise-attack on those Iranian nuclear facilities. That is why diplomacy and threats, like those coming from the US about using force against a nuclear programme that in reality doesn’t exist yet, matter less than we may think. The issue will be settled, more probably, somewhere between Moscow and Teheran. In Iran many believe that such a solution could be enriching the uranium elsewhere in exchange for a diploma of “international normalcy” and a final commitment by Russia as to the conclusion of Bushher power plant.

The irony of it all is that it remains far from clear that the Iranians really wanted to build nuclear weapons in the first place. It is true that they need electricity badly, among many other things. But now the nuke programme (the pacific one, at least) has become such a matter of national pride that it elicits an unexpected consensus among all the factions in Iran, the opposition included. Ahmadinedzad, whose star is beginning to flicker, tries to take advantage from this for his personal demagogery. But it is not him but the Supreme Leader ayatollah Khamenei who holds the reins of power. And, according to those who know the narrow corners of that strange State, Iran, a sort of mixture between “Maoísm” and Islam, Khamenei is not interested in a direct confrontation with the West and sooner or later will force Ahmadineyad to accept an agreement which will both de-escalate the crises and keep national pride in a safer place.

For the time being, with an economy in decline and a society more and more disillusioned with its leaders, Iran enjoys her brand New Year and her brand new nuclear technology. That is, as long as Nauroz prophecies continue to prove wrong.

(Miguel Murado is a former Middle East correspondent and current political analyst for the Spanish newspaper La Voz de Galicia)

Miguel Murado
La Voz de Galicia, 30 April 2006